So David already did his preview, but I disagree with several things he said, and also want to add my own input, so I'm going to do one too. :)
The Lakers and Celtics are, as many have pointed out, built very differently, and have very different reputations. The Lakers have a rep as offensive superstars who are soft and prone to being pushed around. The Celtics have a rep as defensive stalwarts who are beasts on the boards. While these trivial labels hold some truth, the fact is that the Lakers are better on defense than given credit for, and are not as soft as they seem (particularly Pau). The Celtics definitely fit their label well, as they are the best defensive team in the NBA, but they also possess a potent offense that can kill you in a variety of ways.
In light of that, let's delve deeper into what the Celtics and the Lakers will look to do in this first game.
Keys for the Lakers:
On Offense, the Lakers must stay true to the triangle. The Celtics defense is aggressive and quick on its rotations and close outs. They like to stack the strong side with help defenders, forcing teams that rely heavily on isolations (like the Cavs) into stagnant offensive sets. The only way to beat the Celtics is to have quick passing and ball reversals. Because of their aggressive close outs on the reversal, the Laker perimeter players will have the opportunity to pump fake and escape dribble for a midrange jumper, or take the ball to the rack. If the offense gets bogged down and Kobe begins to play 1 on 5 basketball, the Celtic defense will eat them alive. This Laker team is the best passing team in the NBA, and if they stick to their blueprint with a heavy dose of triangle offense, movement, and rotation, the Celtics will have a hard time covering them.
On Defense, the Lakers are severly underrated. They are long and quick, which causes plenty of problems for opposing teams. Key defensive matchups, if the Lakers matchup the way I believe they should, will be Odom on Perkins and Gasol on Garnett. As we saw in the Spurs series, Gasol can be an effective defender in the post - as long as he stays behind his man and gets his hands up to challenge the shot, his length can bother Garnett. If Gasol can keep Garnett from having a monster game, the Lakers can live without doubling KG. Garnett has never been a big time scorer, and one of the biggest knocks on him is that he is unselfish to a fault. By bringing a double team, it plays right into his strengths as a passer and facilitator - force KG to score 30+ points (which he has done only twice in this postseason) and become a volume shooter, and the Lakers have a good shot at winning. Perkins is a big banger who is aggressive on the offensive glass. Odom must put his effort into keeping Perk off the boards - if Perkins gets a double double, the Celtics will likely win the game. Ray Allen cannot be overlooked, and cannot be left alone. Any double teams that the Lakers throw at the Celtics should come off of Rondo, not Allen. Now, Rondo. Many Celtics fans are pointing at the matchup of Rondo vs. Fisher as a definite Celtic advantage. This is a huge error - the Lakers have matched up against 2 surefire future HOF (and one potential HOF-er) point guards in AI, Deron Williams, and Tony Parker. None of those three has been able to rescue their team. Fisher is a smart and strong defender, able to angle off drives and muscle his counterpart off their line. Rondo's offense is limited to floaters and runners in the lane, and a 15 foot baseline jump shot. The Lakers have enough shotblockers in Odom, Gasol, and Turiaf to deal with Rondo's unreliable floaters, but giving Rondo the 15 foot baseline jumper would be a mistake, but with double teams coming off of Rondo, it will be hard to limit the availability of that shot.
Another option for the Lakers, which they used throughout the regular season, is to roll out their 1-2-2 full court trapping press at specific times. If you watched the Det-Bos series, in Game 4 down the stretch, the Pistons used a full court press effectively, trapping Rondo on the sidelines and forcing him to make risky lob passes out of the trap. With Rondo being their only effective ballhandling option, the Lakers could surprise the Celtics with their press and create a few turnovers/transition baskets with it, and in a series that looks to be as tight as this one, 6 points could be the difference between a win and a loss.
Keys for the Celtics:
on Offense, the Celtics must look to keep Rondo and Perkins involved. Garnett and Pierce will be good for 20-25 points every night, with Ray Allen adding anywhere from 0-30 points (depending on if he's feeling it or not). Rondo and Perkins will not have any plays called for them, and must take shots when they get them. The Celtics play a typical NBA offense, with lots of PNR and Isolation sets. The Celtics will want to control the tempo and keep the game in the 80s-low 90s, and not give the Lakers any chances to get off on the fast break. Rondo must not turn the ball over, and they need to force Kobe to expend his energy on the defensive end. If Kobe matches up with Allen, they should have Allen play a Rip Hamilton type game, and run him off multiple screens. If instead, he is matched with Rondo, Rondo must be aggressive going to the hole, looking to pick up cheap fouls on Bryant. However, the key driving force of the celtics offense must be Paul Pierce. Pierce can get his shot off through shot fakes and bumping his defender off to create space, and he has also improved his ballhandling off of pick and rolls allowing him to turn the corner or split weak hedges. What I would like to see is a small on small Pick and Pop between Pierce and Allen, with allen setting the pick on Pierce's man. What we would see there is likely a Kobe/Fisher switch, a Radman/Kobe switch, or a Radman/Fisher switch, because the man getting picked cannot leave Allen on the 3 point line unchecked. If Fisher gets matched with Pierce, he can easily go into the post, where he likes to operate, and get a layup or his favored turnaround fadeaway. To sum it up, the Big 3 must be on their game, the Celtics must limit turnovers, and Perkins must bang and go after offensive rebounds to give the Celtics extra possessions that they will likely need to match the Lakers potent offense.
on Defense, much like my preview of the Lakers offense, the Celtics must be wary of rotating and closing out too aggressively. The Celtics like to sag their help defense, stacking lots of people on the strong side of the floor. The Lakers will reverse the ball quickly from the post, as Gasol is a great passer, but the Celtics must be ready to control their aggression. The Lakers have great shooters in Vujacic, Radmanovic, and Farmar, and closing out on them will be key - but closing out too hard will open driving lanes or mid range jumpers. Expect to see the Celtics playing loose 1 on 1 defense with Kobe, hoping to entice him into taking long jumpers and turning the game into 1 on 5. The Celtics will outrebound the Lakers by a good margin, as the Lakers are not a good rebounding team and can be pushed off the boards. If the Celtics can limit the Lakers to one shot and out, they will have a good chance of keeping the Laker offense in check. If the score is in the 80s, the Celtics will be in good shape.
Final Thoughts: This series will boil down to the hungrier team. Will it be the Celtics, with Garnett, Pierce, and Allen looking for their first championships ever? Or will it be the Lakers, with Kobe proving that he has matured, Gasol getting his first taste of success, and the young bench coming of age? Does Doc Rivers have the ability as a coach to put his team in a position to win, or will Phil Jackson break his tie with Red Auerbach for most NBA titles? In the end, I believe the Lakers potent offense and solid defense will be too much for the Celtics powerful defense and stagnant offense to handle. When the Celtics go on their inevitable scoring drought, the Lakers will pull away. Plus, they have Kobe.
Lakers in 5 - winning Game 1, losing Game 2, then sweeping the games at Staples to close it out at home.
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