Hindsight on the Blockbuster

Two weeks after the two blockbuster trades that sent CC Sabathia to the Brewers and Rich Harden to the Cubs, we seem to be in the same position: the Cubs holding on to a slim lead over the Brewers and Cardinals in the NL Central. Since the trades, the Cubs and Brewers are an identical 11-8, and the Cardinals are 10-9.

This leaves the NL Central standings roughly unchanged in two weeks time, with the Brewers edging ever so slightly passed the Cardinals. So what exactly do the acquisitions of Rich Harden and CC Sabathia mean for the top two teams in the NL Central?

CC and the Brewers

Sabathia joins a Milwaukee pitching rotation that now features quite possibly the most dominant pitching duo in the major leagues: himself and Ben Sheets. Since joining the Brewers, Sabathia has definitely lived up to expectations, if not surpassed them. In 5 starts (each of them quality), Sabathia has racked up 4 wins (3 complete games, 1 shutout), 34 K's in 39.2 innings pitched, a 1.82 ERA, and a 0.98 WHIP. He's also held the opposition to a .209 batting average. With staff ace Sheets mired in a recent slump of mediocrity (1-3, 4.75 ERA in last 6 starts), Sabathia's recent surge of dominance could not have come at a better time.

Actually, "recent surge" of dominance would be an incorrect choice of words. Instead, I'll just say dominant. One word, dominant. Don't be mistaken, Sabathia's brilliance since joining the Brewers is not a recent development; he has been this dominant all season long. In fact, Sabathia's 3.33 ERA this seasons (although solid), is quite deceptive to the type of season he's actually having. Discounting Sabathia's puzzling first four starts of the season, we'd be looking at a 2.06 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. In other words, we'd be looking at a repeat winner of the Cy Young award, and just the fourth pitcher in history (Gaylord Perry, Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens) to win it in both the National League and American League.

With run production stemming from offensive giants Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, if CC and Benny can continue blowing batters out of the box, the Brewers have a decent shot at holding off the Cardinals (who are currently treading water, praying for the return of Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright) and even overtaking the Cubs.


Rich and the Cubs

Long considered to be one of the most talented young pitchers in the major leagues, Rich Harden has been unable to stay healthy for a full season to display his true brilliance. Brushing off the painful memories of a certain Mark Prior, the Cubs took a gamble on yet another injury-prone superstar talent in Harden. Just 24 hours after the Sabathia trade was announced, Oakland sent Harden to the Cubs, dispensing of the last piece of what was supposed to be the dynamic Athletic trio of Mark Mulder (on a deathbed somewhere in St. Louis), Tim Hudson (thriving in Atlanta), and Rich Harden (to be determined).

Harden joins a Cubs pitching staff that is much stronger than the rotation that greeted Sabathia in Milwaukee. Carlos Zambrano, learning from his mistake last year and wisely not guaranteeing a Cy Young award this year, is quietly taking care of business. In fact, he actually stands a chance at winning one this year! In 21 starts, Zambrano is 12-4 (on pace for easily another 16-18 win season), has a 2.80 ERA (godly), and a 1.22 WHIP (not usually his forte).

But most of the Cubs' surprise success is due to the resurgence (out of NOWHERE) of Ryan Dempster as a starter. Moved to the closer position from '05 to '07 due to a lack of consistency and command, Ol' Lou decided to give Dempster another shot as a starter this year. And somehow, Dempster has rediscovered the magic dust he had back in 2000 that actually made him a serviceable starter.

Harden will join Zambrano, Dempster, and an offense that features 4 guys striving to hit 30 home runs (Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto), in trying to hold off the Brewers and the Cardinals. Though winless since his arrival, Harden has been nothing short of dazzling for the Cubs. Believe it or not, he's been even better than Sabathia. In three starts, Harden's stats are mind-boggling. He is 0-1 (blame a slumping Cubs offense and a bullpen that couldn't hold a 7-0 lead in the 7th inning), has a 1.04 ERA (2 runs over 17.1 innings), a 0.92 WHIP, and has struck out 30 in just 17.1 innings. Take a moment to mull over that last statistic. 30 strikeouts, in 17.1 innings. That is an average of 15.6 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched. That is absurd.

CC vs Rich

In my opinion, the Cubs are the winners of these two deals, only because they started out as a better team than the Brewers. To this point, they haven't needed a talented new pitcher to come in, hoist them on his back, and carry them into the playoffs (such a maneuver would almost certainly land Harden on the DL again anyway). They already have an all-star pitcher (Zambrano), another pitcher having an all-star year (Dempster), and three others (Lilly, Marquis, and Gallagher) decent enough to keep the Cubs in ball games so that Ramirez, Soriano, Lee, and Soto can drive in more runs than the opposition (which this year they've done, more often than not). So even if the trade fails (i.e. Rich Harden sprains his knee, Rich Harden sprains his ankle, Rich Harden tears a ligament in his shoulder, Rich Harden suffers a season ending paper cut, etc.), left standing would still be the first place Cubs, confident and healthy. However, the upside to Rich Harden is enormous. And the Cubs are willing to gamble on Harden because if Dempster continues his inexplicable season and if Harden can stay healthy, the Cubs are one of the clear favorites to win the World Series this year.